Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $231.82 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $243.38 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T17:16:44.000Z
VIX 19.992026-11-13T17:16:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.362026-11-13T17:21:50.000Z
Market and sector reference
ADBE +1.06% · SPY -0.72% · Peer average +0.97% (ADSK, APP, CRM, DDOG, HUBS, INTU)
2026-11-13T17:30:15.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
0 direct · 9 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact1.5%Favorable2nd-orderGoogle taught the world how to search. Now it faces a revolution it can't afford to lose.13d ago
AI-native content creation and workflow search favor platforms with embedded creation and productivity entry points.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · MSFT · META · MELI · AMZN
- #2Impact2%Favorable2nd-orderThis Week's Tech Earnings Could Be a ‘Validation Moment' for the AI Trade25d ago
If generative AI features keep converting into paid adoption, Adobe can benefit from higher subscription pricing and upgrade rates in creative software.
Also named: NVDA · AMD · AVGO · MSFT · GOOGL · ORCL
- #3Impact1.5%Favorable2nd-orderMicrosoft and Amazon combine for a $400 billion market-cap boost — and these factors show why9d ago
Monetization of generative AI features can lift subscription ARPU and retention in creative software.
Also named: MSFT · AMZN · ORCL · NVDA · AMD · AVGO
- #4Impact0.7%Favorable2nd-orderMicrosoft's Dividend Yield Looks Small. The Check It Writes Every Year Doesn't.17d ago
As another high-margin subscription software company, Adobe can benefit from the market’s greater willingness to pay for software firms that can both grow and return cash to shareholders.
Also named: MSFT · ORCL · AMZN · GOOGL · AAPL · AVGO
Rising AI investment underscores the premium on software companies with proven monetization and pricing power.
Also named: AAPL · GOOGL · MSFT · NFLX · CRM · NVDA
- #6Impact1%Adverse2nd-orderMeta's Muse agent is attacking one of the economy's most profitable weak spots47d ago
As agencies and design workflows get replaced by AI generation, demand for Adobe's creative tools is indirectly weakened.
Also named: META · WPP · OMC · IPG · SNAP · PINS
- #7Impact0.8%Adverse2nd-orderWatch out for Big Tech companies like Meta and Alphabet issuing more shares and diluting your stock ownership9d ago
Software giants also rely heavily on stock compensation, so a harsher market on dilution can pressure valuation multiples for names like ADBE.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · META · ASML · QQQ
If Apple’s platform fees and distribution rules stay unchanged, content and subscription apps still face iOS revenue-sharing pressure, limiting margin recovery.
Also named: AAPL · GOOGL · META · SNPS · ANET · TLT
- #9Impact0.5%Adverse2nd-orderApple CEO says the company doesn't ‘want to ship AI for AI's sake'13d ago
If consumer-device AI adoption ramps more gradually, AI-assisted creative-app penetration may also build more slowly.
Also named: AAPL · SSNLF · QCOM · AVGO · TSM · MRVL
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $23.8B · latest quarter up 12.9% YoY · reported FY net income of $7.1B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$23.8B
2025-11
Latest Q YoY
+12.9%
Gross margin
89.3%
FY net income
$7.1B
Diluted EPS
$16.73
Short-sale volume share
46.3%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 48% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-08-07SCHEDULE 13GSTATE STREET CORP
- 2026-07-27SCHEDULE 13G/ABlackRock, Inc.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 91/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Aug 2026$4.75 vs $4.86-2.26%
- May 2026$4.58 vs $4.74-3.38%
- Feb 2026$4.83 vs $4.85-0.41%
- Nov 2025$4.55 vs $4.39+3.64%
The takeaway
The average EPS surprise in the quarters shown is small. Positive and negative surprises can offset each other, so review each quarter separately.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $195.00–$373.00 · Consensus $262.67
Buy / hold / sell 5 / 12 / 6
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T17:36:47.253Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Nov 2026) $5.11 · $4.99–$5.16 · 12 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 0
Estimate dispersion 3.3%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T17:36:45.195Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $237.89
MA10 $243.22
MA20 $248.78
MA60 $252.88
Last completed-session close $238.54 (+0.40%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.86×
Prior 20-session range $231.82–$272.10 · MA20 change over five sessions -0.39% · CMF20 0.02
Confirmation to watch: a close above $272.10 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $231.82 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
See every affected stock, second-order impact and risk factor. Try Pro free for 7 days — no credit card required.
Start my free trial