Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $1,409.21 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $1,563.46 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:03:34.000Z
VIX 20.292026-11-13T16:03:31.000Z
Dollar index 103.342026-11-13T16:08:37.000Z
Market and sector reference
ASML -1.97% · SPY -1.13% · Peer average -5.80% (AMAT, AMKR, CDNS, ENTG, KLAC, LRCX)
2026-11-13T16:17:22.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
5 direct · 146 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
The faster advanced-node capacity expands, the stronger the demand for EUV/High-NA tools and installed base upgrades; ASML’s near-monopoly in advanced lithography makes it the direct beneficiary of AI fab capex.
Also named: KLAC · AMAT · NVDA · AVGO · AMD · 2330.TW
Advanced-node expansion expectations are tightly linked to AI capex; if cloud operators and chip designers slow investment, ASML’s long-term order assumptions will be revised down.
Also named: META · GOOGL · AMZN · MSFT · AMAT · LRCX
- #3Impact3.8%Favorable2nd-orderMeta and Alphabet Face Serious Market Pressure Over Capex in Q411d ago
If hyperscalers keep spending on compute, higher advanced-node capex expectations should improve ASML's order visibility.
Also named: META · GOOG · GOOGL · AMZN · AMAT · LRCX
- #4Impact3.8%Adverse2nd-orderWhy are Nvidia, AMD and Intel stocks crashing in pre-market trading today?15d ago
ASML’s orders are tightly linked to advanced-node expansion, and a cooler AI-chip trade weakens expectations for EUV and High-NA demand.
Also named: NVDA · AMD · INTC · AVGO · AMAT · LRCX
- #5Impact3.5%Favorable2nd-orderApple Squeezed These Chip Suppliers for Years. AI Is Helping Them Get Even.15d ago
Greater complexity at the leading edge reinforces ASML's long-term demand for EUV and High-NA-related tools.
Also named: AMAT · LRCX · TSM · NVDA · AMKR · AAPL
If advanced capacity continues to concentrate outside China, lithography and related equipment spending should still benefit from global AI expansion.
Also named: 300308.SZ · 002463.SZ · NVDA · 0981.HK · AMAT · LRCX
Advanced AI chip ramp ultimately depends on EUV/DUV tool spending, which supports future capex expectations.
Also named: NVDA · AMD · AVGO · AMAT · LRCX · MSFT
The subject: demand outpacing supply and a raised outlook validate EUV monopoly and AI-driven backlog, though average beat of just 4% means part is priced in
Also named: AMAT · LRCX · KLAC · TSM
- #9Impact5%FavorableDirectChip-Machine Supplier ASML Boosts Guidance for Third Time On Surging AI Demand31d ago
Third guidance hike attributed to AI demand, though strong AI-litho expectations are largely priced in and recent beat margins have narrowed
Also named: AMAT · LRCX · KLAC · 2330.TW · 005930.KS · NVDA
Continued cloud AI expansion strengthens long-term expectations for advanced logic and memory capex, supporting demand for ASML's front-end tools.
Also named: NVDA · SMCI · DELL · AVGO · ANET · CIEN
The rest, archived by time · 141
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
Short-sale volume share
31.7%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 35.5% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Medium · 49/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$14.89 vs $12.47+19.41%
- Jun 2026$8.81 vs $7.98+10.4%
- Mar 2026$8.37 vs $7.72+8.42%
- Dec 2025$8.55 vs $9.01-5.11%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 8.3% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $2100.00–$2781.91 · Consensus $2524.33
Buy / hold / sell 6 / 0 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:24:02.000Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $17.22 · $16.53–$18.04 · 3 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 0
Estimate dispersion 8.8%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:24:01.798Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $1495.48
MA10 $1497.45
MA20 $1563.40
MA60 $1673.24
Last completed-session close $1497.12 (-2.43%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 1.07×
Prior 20-session range $1355.05–$1690.10 · MA20 change over five sessions -3.33% · CMF20 -0.35
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
- Distribution-like weak closes (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $1690.10 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $1355.05 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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