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CATCaterpillar

$592.22-2.16%Delayed market dataConstruction machineryMachinery & diversified industrials · 16 peers →

Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions
$592.22 USD2026-11-13 16:50 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Hold and monitor; no addition yet

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

To defense -6.4%To breakout +3.6%
Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $550.81 · Breakout $679.50

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $554.61 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $613.57 → consider a staged addition

Completed session: 2026-11-12 · Completed-session volume ratio 0.63× · MA20 $651.67

Range basis session: 2026-11-12 · Yahoo Finance

Level methodology and recent changes

Near term: trigger levels use the five sessions preceding the latest completed session, never that session’s own high/low. Confirmation requires a close beyond the boundary and 1.5× prior-20-session average volume. The crossed level becomes the new reference; any next boundary comes from observed prior-20-session highs/lows. The five-session range rolls after the next completed session, not with intraday quotes.

Current base window starts: 2026-11-06

  • 2026-11-05 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $582.51–$664.47 → —–$582.51 · Close $553.64 / 1.87×
  • 2026-11-04 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $609.89–$732.73 → —–$609.89 · Close $591.30 / 1.72×
  • 2026-10-30 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $631.01–$732.73 → —–$631.01 · Close $622.75 / 1.75×
  • 2026-10-29 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $679.50–$732.73 → —–$679.50 · Close $647.39 / 2.99×
  • 2026-10-15 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $742.01–$821.91 → —–$742.01 · Close $735.64 / 1.80×

Tilt shows price location, not a probability. Combine technical signals with company research and your risk tolerance. No trades are executed.

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

ENTRY CONCLUSION

Watch — hold off on buying the dip

The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.

The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.

Why

CAT is technically weak in the near term: the latest session fell about 9.1% on volume 2.13x the 20-day average, and the stock sits below its 5-, 10-, 20- and 60-day moving averages, keeping the trend bearish. Fundamentally, however, earnings have not deteriorated in lockstep: the last four reported quarters all beat EPS consensus by wide margins, and the next fiscal quarter consensus is still being revised higher. Macro conditions remain cautious for cyclical capital equipment, with the 10-year Treasury around 4.99%, VIX around 16.9, and the dollar index around 101.98. CAT is also materially underperforming both the broader market and the listed peers, which suggests the tape is pricing near-term pressure rather than a clear fundamental collapse. Liquidity support looks solid, with a publicly disclosed $3.5 billion unsecured revolving facility undrawn as of the filing date; still, the stock is near key support, and if earnings or guidance stop surprising positively, or support fails, the rebound case weakens materially.

Research as of 2026-10-29T18:34:05.511Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:34:44.000Z

VIX 20.092026-11-13T16:34:46.000Z

Dollar index 103.352026-11-13T16:39:52.000Z

Market and sector reference

CAT -2.16% · SPY -1.01% · Peer average -1.18% (CARR, CMI, DE, EMR, ETN)

2026-11-13T16:50:43.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Related news and impact paths

Recent news related to this stock

4 direct · 4 2nd-order · 0 thematic

Ranked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data

Annual revenue $67.6B · latest quarter up 17.3% YoY · reported FY net income of $968M · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.

FY revenue

$67.6B

2025-12

Latest Q YoY

+17.3%

Gross margin

6.7%

FY net income

$968M

Diluted EPS

$18.9

Short-sale volume share

31.6%

2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 41.3% · below recent average

Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.

Historical results versus analyst expectations

🎯 Market expectations

Estimate context score Medium · 61/100

Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data

Next quarter (Dec 2026) consensus$6.79Estimate range $5.83 ~ $7.84 · 10 analystsRevisions (4w):↓5
History: actual vs consensusavg +16%
  • Sep 2026$7.20 vs $7.12+1.12%
  • Jun 2026$8.17 vs $6.25+30.72%
  • Mar 2026$5.54 vs $4.55+21.76%
  • Dec 2025$5.16 vs $4.67+10.49%

The takeaway

EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 16% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 5 downward revisions over the past four weeks.

Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $664.00–$1027.00 · Consensus $813.50

Buy / hold / sell 8 / 7 / 0

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:51:41.811Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $6.79 · $5.83–$7.84 · 10 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 5

Estimate dispersion 29.6%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:51:41.706Z
Financial inputs and original sources

gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-29T18:34:05.511Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit

Cash: 3500 USD_millions · 2026-08-27
“an unsecured revolving credit facility to the Borrowers in an aggregate amount of up to $3.5 billion”

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Downtrend structure

MA5 $589.79

MA10 $595.42

MA20 $651.67

MA60 $755.20

Last completed-session close $605.28 (+0.61%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.63×

Prior 20-session range $550.81–$745.00 · MA20 change over five sessions -6.51% · CMF20 -0.12

  • Distribution-like weak closes (inference)

Confirmation to watch: a close above $745.00 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $550.81 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

Price and news

Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.

Related news

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52 related news records are available with Pro.

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05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

When to reconsider

  • The stock reclaims the 10-day moving average and holds above the 20-day moving average, with volume normalizing toward the 20-day average, signaling easing selling pressure.
  • The next earnings report or guidance again validates EPS resilience, and consensus keeps moving higher, supporting fundamental repair rather than a purely technical bounce.
  • The 10-year Treasury yield, VIX, and the U.S. dollar stop rising further, easing pressure on cyclical equipment valuation and capex demand.
  • Price reclaims and holds above 679.5; a further move toward the 876.95 resistance zone would make the technical repair more credible.

What would invalidate the thesis

  • If the stock breaks below 679.5 and cannot quickly reclaim it, the downtrend remains in control.
  • If future earnings no longer beat materially, or management cuts full-year/near-term guidance, the earnings-resilience thesis weakens.
  • If the 10-year yield and the dollar keep rising while peers outperform CAT, the relative re-rating case fails.
  • If volume rises but CAT still materially underperforms peers, the market is not confirming a rebound.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
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Risk temperature

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