Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $179.04 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $245.73 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:29:34.000Z
VIX 20.122026-11-13T16:29:31.000Z
Dollar index 103.342026-11-13T16:34:40.000Z
Market and sector reference
COHR -9.31% · SPY -1.01% · Peer average -5.59% (AAOI, AAPL, ANET, CSCO, DELL, HPE)
2026-11-13T16:47:53.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
9 direct · 10 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact5.5%FavorableDirectCoherent: The AI Premium Is Gone, The Earnings Aren't (Rating Upgrade)11d ago
With annual revenue already at $7.1 billion and recent quarterly sales up 20.5% YoY, the upgrade highlights that earnings growth has not disappeared, signaling that AI-related demand is still converting into results.
Also named: LITE · AAOI · FNSR · KLAC · AMAT · LRCX
If Coherent delivers another strong quarter and stable guidance, it directly lifts earnings expectations and valuation anchors, with investors focused on order visibility in datacenter photonics and materials.
Also named: LITE · AAOI · GLW · TRUM · IPGP · APH
If the call further validates strong demand in data center optical modules, silicon photonics and industrial lasers, both revenue and margin expectations should move higher.
Also named: LITE · INFN · NOK · AMAT · LRCX · KLAC
Coherent supplies lasers, photonic devices and datacenter-related optoelectronics, so continued AI infrastructure demand directly supports revenue growth expectations.
Also named: LITE · AAOI · FNSR · FIX · ROK · EMR
As the article’s lead name, Coherent could see multiple expansion if investors buy the thesis that the post-selloff reset still leaves its recovery underappreciated; at $7.1B revenue, even modest order or margin improvement can move valuation materially.
Also named: LITE · IPGP · AMAT · LRCX
- #6Impact3.2%Favorable2nd-orderBig Tech's AI bill meets a 'Big Cash Burn' issue: are investors' fears justified?13d ago
AI data centers need more optical communications and related components, supporting demand for lasers and optical interconnects.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · AMZN · META · NVDA · AMD
The article directly centers on Coherent’s AI data-center expansion; further penetration in high-power lasers, optical interconnects, and related components would improve revenue mix and support a valuation premium.
Also named: LITE · FNSR · ANET · MRVL · VRT · AMKR
As the reporting company, continued strength in datacenter and industrial laser demand would directly support valuation.
Also named: LITE · AAOI · IPGP · FNSR · GLW
The article is directly about Coherent, and the market is likely to view the deal as improving its bargaining power and strategic optionality in optical networking and lasers.
Also named: LITE · FNSR · INFN · AAOI · ANET · IPGP
A stronger AI data-center buildout boosts demand for optical interconnects and related components, benefiting from denser server connectivity.
Also named: AMD · ARM HOLDINGS · 英伟达 · SMCI · 戴尔科技 · 慧与科技
The rest, archived by time · 9
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $7.1B · latest quarter up 49.9% YoY · reported FY net income of $805M · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$7.1B
2026-06
Latest Q YoY
+49.9%
FY net income
$805M
Diluted EPS
$4.34
Short-sale volume share
39.9%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 45.8% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-11-05SCHEDULE 13G/AFMR LLC
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 75/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$1.80 vs $1.800%
- Jun 2026$1.47 vs $1.43+2.8%
- Mar 2026$1.21 vs $1.23-1.63%
- Dec 2025$1.11 vs $1.03+7.77%
The takeaway
The average EPS surprise in the quarters shown is small. Positive and negative surprises can offset each other, so review each quarter separately. Analysts made 8 upward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $228.00–$500.00 · Consensus $350.87
Buy / hold / sell 12 / 4 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:49:31.268Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $2.14 · $2.05–$2.21 · 9 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 8 / 1
Estimate dispersion 7.5%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:49:31.136Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $219.85
MA10 $208.19
MA20 $218.37
MA60 $269.00
Last completed-session close $232.08 (-1.04%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.83×
Prior 20-session range $160.23–$252.28 · MA20 change over five sessions -6.53% · CMF20 -0.03
Confirmation to watch: a close above $252.28 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $160.23 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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