Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Below defense; watch reduction conditions
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $129.41 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $139.75 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z
VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z
Market and sector reference
COIN -2.89% · SPY -0.92% · Peer average -7.04% (BTBT, CLSK, HIVE, HUT, MARA, MSTR)
2026-11-13T16:12:46.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
13 direct · 9 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
1 duplicate reports of the same events merged
- #1Impact5.5%FavorableDirectCoinbase: Hold Until Deribit, Prediction Markets And USDC Turn Into Profit21d ago
COIN is the direct subject of the note; successful monetization of Deribit, prediction markets and the USDC ecosystem could lift trading fees, derivatives revenue and stablecoin-related income.
Also named: CME · MSTR · CRCL · PYPL · CROX · DKNG
- #2Impact5.5%FavorableDirectBullish Bitcoin Signs Underneath Selloff; OCC Stablecoin Framework to Move COIN, CRCL22d ago
Coinbase is both a leading U.S. crypto exchange and a key USDC distribution/custody partner, so clearer regulation directly improves the visibility of stablecoin fees, custody revenue, and institutional economics.
Also named: CRCL · PYPL · V · MA · SQ · BTC
The call’s key message was a shift from pure trading fees toward subscriptions, custody and institutional services; a larger mix here should reduce revenue volatility and regulatory sensitivity.
Also named: CNSX · IREN · MSTR · BTC · ETH · GLD
As the headline company, investors will be reminded that Coinbase’s core earnings still hinge on spot and derivatives trading volumes rather than on subscriptions and services, limiting the valuation support from the diversification story.
Also named: CND · MSTR · MARA · RIOT · SQ · PYPL
- #5Impact4%FavorableDirectCoinbase Global Maps ‘Everything Exchange' Push Beyond Crypto Trading63d ago
With quarterly revenue down 18.5% YoY, COIN's push into equities, prediction markets and derivatives is a structural hedge against declining crypto trading volume, but this is still a planning-stage announcement with no near-term revenue proof
Also named: HOOD · CME · NDAQ · IBKR · CRCL
- #6Impact3.5%Adverse2nd-orderSchwab isn't trying to win crypto customers. It's trying not to lose them.77d ago
Schwab's 34-million-account base entering crypto trading structurally erodes Coinbase's retail trading volume and custody share over the long run.
Also named: SCHW · IBKR · HOOD
- #7Impact6.5%AdverseDirectCoinbase stock hits two-year low as analyst cuts and Binance hack weigh14d ago
As the headline name, Coinbase is hit by lower ratings and the industry-wide security scare, both of which hurt expectations for transaction-fee revenue and lift the risk premium on a business highly leveraged to trading activity.
Also named: BNB · MSTR · RIOT · CRWD · ZS · OKTA
- #8Impact3%FavorableDirectCoinbase Is Pushing to Bring Stablecoins to 1,000 Community Banks. Here's Why Everyone Is Talking About Stablecoins Right Now.63d ago
As USDC's core distributor, embedding stablecoins in 1,000 community banks could structurally expand USDC float and interest-income share, though near-term financial contribution is limited given revenue already down 18.5% YoY
Also named: CRCL · WU · MA · FI · JKHY
Expanding into IPO distribution diversifies revenue away from crypto trading commission dependence
Also named: HOOD · SOFI · IBKR · GS · MS · NDAQ
- #10Impact2.3%FavorableDirectCrypto ETFs Already Go Far Beyond Bitcoin. The SEC Wants to Know If Its Rules Have Kept Up14d ago
As a custody and trading infrastructure provider, Coinbase benefits from more institutional crypto products and the resulting lift in assets under custody and trading activity.
Also named: BLK · GLXY · CME · CRCL
The rest, archived by time · 12
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $7.2B · latest quarter down 35% YoY · reported FY net income of $1.3B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$7.2B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
-35%
FY net income
$1.3B
Diluted EPS
$4.85
Short-sale volume share
47.3%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 50.1% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 40/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026$0.28 vs -$0.16+275%
- Jun 2026-$0.39 vs $0.14-378.57%
- Mar 2026-$0.17 vs $0.36-147.22%
- Dec 2025$0.66 vs $0.92-28.26%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $100.00–$330.00 · Consensus $196.88
Buy / hold / sell 16 / 7 / 3
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:40:00.050Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.07 · $-0.41–$0.54 · 10 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 3 / 6
Estimate dispersion 1357.1%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:39:59.997Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $133.99
MA10 $138.51
MA20 $152.59
MA60 $173.35
Last completed-session close $130.67 (-4.11%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.75×
Prior 20-session range $129.41–$185.49 · MA20 change over five sessions -6.96% · CMF20 -0.07
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
Confirmation to watch: a close above $185.49 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $129.41 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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