Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $240.35 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $249.31 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:34:44.000Z
VIX 20.092026-11-13T16:34:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.352026-11-13T16:39:52.000Z
Market and sector reference
IBM +0.53% · SPY -1.05% · Peer average -6.13% (AAOI, AAPL, ANET, COHR, CSCO, DELL)
2026-11-13T16:52:16.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
2 direct · 7 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact2.8%FavorableDirectIBM Fixed Its Plumbing; Intel Became Big Tech's Real Structural Trap18d ago
With IBM’s large revenue base and high gross margin, a successful operating cleanup would improve visibility on software and services renewals from enterprise customers.
Also named: NOW · ACN · INTC · SMCI · HPQ · NVDA
- #2Impact2.2%FavorableDirectApproaching Earnings Season, Are Pure Play Quantum Stocks Still a Good Bet?17d ago
IBM's enterprise quantum and hybrid-cloud positioning adds technical credibility to its consulting and software franchise, though quantum is still too small to materially change near-term earnings.
Also named: IONQ · QBTS · RGTI · QUBT · MSFT · GOOG
IBM is also betting on quantum commercialization, and if Google’s progress is seen as closer to a scalable error-correction path, it can narrow IBM’s relative technology-lead expectations.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · MICROSOFT · NVIDIA · MSFT · AMZN
- #4Impact1.8%Adverse2nd-orderIntel to Acquire Classiq to Create a Full-stack Quantum Computing Platform18d ago
IBM is a leading enterprise quantum software and services player; Intel's push into a full-stack platform can add competitive pressure for enterprise customers and developers.
Also named: INTC · IONQ · RGTI
- #5Impact1.5%Adverse2nd-orderIntel to buy quantum firm Classiq for about $2.3 billion, Bloomberg News reports17d ago
IBM competes on an integrated quantum hardware-software stack; Intel’s stronger software layer raises competitive pressure in enterprise and research quantum projects.
Also named: INTC · GOOGL · MSFT · SNPS · AMZN · ORCL
IBM is also a key enterprise quantum-computing participant, so heightened attention can lift visibility and partnership expectations around its quantum business.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · IONQ · QBTS · MSFT · AMZN
- #7Impact1.6%Favorable2nd-order‘Open your doors for AI': German chancellor urges businesses to embrace AI as Nvidia announces new investments25d ago
IBM’s positioning in enterprise AI, hybrid cloud and advisory services allows it to capture more project spend from European digital budgets.
Also named: NVDA · ASML · SMCI · AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL
If enterprises keep spending on automation and workflow modernization, IBM’s software and consulting businesses can see a modest order tailwind.
Also named: NOW · CRM · SNPS · ACN · MSFT · AMZN
AWS expansion strengthens public cloud versus on-premise economics, which limits incremental space for IBM’s legacy infrastructure and services businesses.
Also named: AMZN · MSFT · GOOGL · ORCL · CRM · NVDA
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $67.5B · latest quarter up 4.7% YoY · reported FY net income of $10.6B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$67.5B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+4.7%
Gross margin
58.2%
FY net income
$10.6B
Diluted EPS
$11.36
Short-sale volume share
41.5%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 41.5% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 75/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$2.95 vs $2.88+2.43%
- Jun 2026$2.93 vs $2.930%
- Mar 2026$1.91 vs $1.81+5.52%
- Dec 2025$4.52 vs $4.33+4.39%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 3.1% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $240.00–$300.00 · Consensus $266.94
Buy / hold / sell 11 / 7 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:52:21.003Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $4.63 · $4.56–$4.73 · 7 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 2
Estimate dispersion 3.7%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:52:17.956Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $245.71
MA10 $249.03
MA20 $248.65
MA60 $237.08
Last completed-session close $244.67 (-1.43%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.54×
Prior 20-session range $226.01–$259.87 · MA20 change over five sessions +1.67% · CMF20 0.21
- Low-volume pullback within an improving structure
- Accumulation-like price/volume pattern (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $259.87 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $226.01 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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