KEELKeel Infrastructure
$1.83-6.15%Delayed market dataData-center infrastructureAI data centers & compute infra · 11 peers →Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $1.70 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $2.16 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
ENTRY CONCLUSION
Watch — hold off on buying the dip
The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.
The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.
Why
KEEL is in a high-risk transition phase: Q2 2026 continuing operations revenue was $30.43 million and adjusted EBITDA was -$23.69 million, so the company remains loss-making while building out its platform. At the same time, as of 2026-08-07 it had about $698 million of unrestricted cash and about $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin, for roughly $819 million of total liquidity, and it raised $458 million via convertible notes during the quarter. On the project side, Sherbrooke secured transfer of 96 MW of existing capacity and a land purchase agreement, Pennsylvania permitting is progressing, and commercial discussions are active, but revenue conversion is not yet stable or proven. Technically, the 2026-10-16 close was $2.31, below the 5/10/20/60-day MAs, with a negative 20-day slope, a downtrend, and price near $2.30 support. Macro conditions are not especially supportive for risk assets, with the 10Y yield at 5.127%, VIX at 17.77 and the USD index at 101.942. Peers BE/CIFR/CORZ were stronger on the day while KEEL lagged, showing relative weakness. Nasdaq consensus is still buy-leaning, but next-quarter EPS remains negative and revision confidence is low, which does not offset execution, financing and dilution risks.
Research as of 2026-10-19T15:23:51.821Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.15%2026-11-13T19:21:54.000Z
VIX 19.072026-11-13T19:21:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.392026-11-13T19:27:00.000Z
Market and sector reference
KEEL -6.41% · SPY -0.51% · Peer average -5.81% (APLD, BE, CIFR, CORZ, CRWV, IREN)
2026-11-13T19:38:54.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
Our feed has no recent coverage linked to this stock. That does not mean there are no events affecting its price.
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $229M · latest quarter down 59.4% YoY · reported FY net loss of $285M · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$229M
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
-59.4%
Gross margin
-8.2%
FY net loss
$285M
Diluted EPS
$-0.52
Short-sale volume share
27.4%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 44.3% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-11-06SCHEDULE 13G/AJANE STREET GROUP, LLC
- 2026-07-29SCHEDULE 13GBlackRock, Inc.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 30/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026-$0.10 vs -$0.07-42.86%
- Jun 2026-$0.18 vs -$0.08-125%
- Mar 2026-$0.10 vs -$0.11+9.09%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $2.00–$5.00 · Consensus $3.46
Buy / hold / sell 5 / 2 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T19:40:40.498Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.07 · $-0.09–$-0.05 · 5 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 1 / 2
Estimate dispersion 57.1%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T19:40:38.261ZFinancial inputs and original sources
gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-19T15:23:51.821Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit
Cash: 698 USD_millions · 2026-08-07
“approximately $698 million in unrestricted cash”
Debt: 458 USD_millions · 2026-06-30
“The Company raised $458 million via a convertible note offering during the quarter.”
- [D1] Keel Infrastructure Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results
- [D2] Keel Infrastructure Supports Governor Shapiro’s GRID Standards for Responsible Data Center Development
- [D3] Keel Infrastructure Advances Sherbrooke, Québec Data Center Project
- [D4] SEC 10-Q · 2026-08-10
- [D5] SEC 8-K · 2026-08-10
- [D6] SEC 8-K · 2026-07-06
04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $1.95
MA10 $1.96
MA20 $2.13
MA60 $2.99
Last completed-session close $1.95 (-5.80%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.68×
Prior 20-session range $1.61–$2.58 · MA20 change over five sessions -9.02% · CMF20 -0.17
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
- Distribution-like weak closes (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $2.58 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $1.61 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
When to reconsider
- A cleaner entry would require the stock to reclaim the 20-day MA and then hold above the 10-day MA, with volume expanding meaningfully above the 20-day average.
- If the company continues to confirm substantive progress on permits, land/power transfer and customer negotiations without new dilution or major delays, the risk/reward would improve.
- A break above the $4.23 resistance level, while peers remain strong, would suggest the market is beginning to re-rate the transformation execution story.
What would invalidate the thesis
- If permits, land closing, power transfer or customer negotiations are materially delayed, the timeline for conversion of the strategy extends and the thesis weakens.
- If the company again relies on large external financing, especially convertibles or equity, to cover build-out and operating gaps, dilution pressure rises materially.
- If continuing-operations losses widen, cash burn accelerates, or the stock loses the $2.30 support and stays below the 20-day MA, the bullish case breaks down.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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