Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $638.01 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $667.51 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:34:44.000Z
VIX 20.092026-11-13T16:34:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.352026-11-13T16:39:52.000Z
Market and sector reference
MA +1.34% · SPY -1.01% · Peer average +0.07% (AFRM, AXP, FISV, HOOD, PYPL, V)
2026-11-13T16:48:13.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
2 direct · 10 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact3.2%FavorableDirectMastercard Rises 4% on Revenue and EPS Beat Led by Value-Added Services; Visa and American Express Gain 2%, PayPal Ticks Up15d ago
The company directly beat on revenue and EPS, with growth driven by value-added services, pointing to a stronger mix of high-margin revenue.
Also named: V · AXP · PYPL
- #2Impact2.8%FavorableDirect5 Financial Transaction Stocks to Watch Amid Cost and Inflation Pressure14d ago
Mastercard’s revenue is driven largely by network fees on transaction value and cross-border fees; if inflation lifts nominal spending without a meaningful volume slowdown, revenue elasticity should be modestly positive.
Also named: V · GPN · WEX · PYPL · SQ
- #3Impact1%Adverse2nd-orderBullish Bitcoin Signs Underneath Selloff; OCC Stablecoin Framework to Move COIN, CRCL22d ago
A clearer compliant path for stablecoins may increase merchant and financial-institution experimentation with alternative settlement rails, putting mild long-term pressure on Mastercard’s fee structure.
Also named: COIN · CRCL · PYPL · V · SQ · BTC
- #4Impact0.7%Adverse2nd-orderCoinbase Is Pushing to Bring Stablecoins to 1,000 Community Banks. Here's Why Everyone Is Talking About Stablecoins Right Now.63d ago
Direct stablecoin settlement reduces reliance on traditional card clearing networks in certain use cases
Also named: COIN · CRCL · WU · FI · JKHY
- #5Impact1.5%Adverse2nd-orderBooking Profit, Sales Fall as Global Conflicts Wear on Travel Demand10d ago
Cross-border travel spend also contributes meaningfully to Mastercard’s volume and fee growth.
Also named: BKNG · EXPE · ABNB · HLT · MAR · WH
- #6Impact0.9%Adverse2nd-orderApple is restricting a fast-growing category of apps. Here's what users need to know8d ago
Mastercard is similarly exposed to changes in payment routing, with a small drag on incremental volume if in-app and subscription payments are constrained.
Also named: AAPL · GOOGL · SPOT · ROKU · SNAP · V
- #7Impact0.9%Favorable2nd-orderBooking Holdings Q3 Earnings Beat on Travel Growth, Revenues Miss9d ago
Booking's results suggest travel spending remains resilient, supporting expectations for Mastercard's cross-border and travel payment growth.
Also named: BKNG · EXPE · TRIP · MAR · HLT · ABNB
Same logic as Visa; growing stablecoin payment penetration represents a long-term competitive risk premium for card networks
Also named: COIN · CRCL · PYPL · V
- #9Impact0.5%Adverse2nd-orderPayPal's BNPL and Credit Growth: Can It be a Further Upside Driver?70d ago
BNPL installment usage partially substitutes for revolving credit card spending, posing a structural long-term erosion risk to card network fee revenue.
Also named: PYPL · AFRM · SQ
- #10Impact0.8%Adverse2nd-orderBooking Stock Falls After Mixed Earnings Report. Here Are The Numbers To Know.10d ago
Also exposed to travel and cross-border card spend, Mastercard can see investors shade down assumptions for high-margin transaction growth.
Also named: BKNG · EXPE · ABNB · V · PYPL
The rest, archived by time · 2
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $32.8B · latest quarter up 14% YoY · reported FY net income of $623M · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$32.8B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+14%
FY net income
$623M
Diluted EPS
$16.54
Short-sale volume share
40.8%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 40.5% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 87/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$5.31 vs $5.14+3.31%
- Jun 2026$5.04 vs $4.77+5.66%
- Mar 2026$4.60 vs $4.40+4.55%
- Dec 2025$4.76 vs $4.20+13.33%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 6.7% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 4 upward revisions over the past four weeks. Analysts made 7 downward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $535.00–$800.00 · Consensus $715.25
Buy / hold / sell 24 / 3 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:51:02.606Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $5.11 · $4.98–$5.27 · 13 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 4 / 7
Estimate dispersion 5.7%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:50:59.528Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Uptrend structure
MA5 $656.14
MA10 $655.26
MA20 $637.78
MA60 $597.08
Last completed-session close $652.60 (-1.23%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.57×
Prior 20-session range $605.00–$681.99 · MA20 change over five sessions +2.18% · CMF20 0.15
- Low-volume pullback within an improving structure
- Accumulation-like price/volume pattern (inference)
Confirmation to watch: a close above $681.99 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $605.00 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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