Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $518.45 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $548.28 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z
VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z
Market and sector reference
MSFT +0.36%
2026-11-12T21:00:01.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
71 direct · 199 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
2 duplicate reports of the same events merged
- #1Impact4.6%FavorableDirectMicrosoft and Amazon combine for a $400 billion market-cap boost — and these factors show why9d ago
Azure and Copilot tie cloud demand to AI adoption, prompting the market to further raise Microsoft’s long-term cloud revenue and valuation anchor.
Also named: AMZN · ORCL · NVDA · AMD · AVGO · SMCI
Stronger AI workloads and Copilot monetization boost cross-sell across Azure, Microsoft 365 and Security; with 18.8% revenue growth and high gross margins, incremental AI revenue should convert efficiently into profit.
Also named: AMZN · ORCL · NVDA · AMD · AVGO · CRM
- #3Impact5%FavorableDirectMicrosoft stock jumps 5% as cloud growth drives earnings and revenue beat16d ago
Microsoft’s cloud business is the core driver of the beat, and Azure growth directly lifts expectations for both revenue and operating profit.
Also named: AMZN · GOOGL · ORCL · NVDA · AMD · ANET
Ongoing spending on Azure and Copilot AI infrastructure lifts the capex burden; with Microsoft having consistently beaten EPS estimates, any concern that extra capex will squeeze future earnings leverage can weigh on the multiple first.
Also named: AMZN · ORCL · ANET · NVDA · AMD · AVGO
- #5Impact4.8%FavorableDirectMicrosoft and Alphabet Just Reported Earnings, Putting the AI Boom to the Test16d ago
Azure and Copilot monetization are the core proof points for AI commercialization; continued rapid cloud growth and AI-related demand would directly lift the market's valuation ceiling for the stock.
Also named: GOOGL · AMZN · NVDA · AMD · AVGO · META
An upside surprise in Azure and AI service growth would reinforce the view that cloud demand is resilient and AI monetization is accelerating, supporting valuation.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · NOW · ETSY · F · BIIB
- #7Impact4%FavorableDirectGoogle taught the world how to search. Now it faces a revolution it can't afford to lose.13d ago
Copilot is one of the leading AI entry points, and a search-paradigm shift reinforces its importance across productivity and consumer workflows.
Also named: GOOG · GOOGL · META · MELI · AMZN · OPENAI
- #8Impact4.2%FavorableDirectThe major reason Microsoft's stock is heading higher after earnings16d ago
Azure and cloud-related revenue continue to scale, and the print confirms Microsoft can still monetize AI demand through its platform.
Also named: AMZN · GOOGL · CRM · NOW · NVDA · AMD
- #9Impact4.6%AdverseDirectMicrosoft's $50 Billion Gamble: Can Microsoft's Azure Growth Justify Its Exploding AI Budget?20d ago
Azure is the core of Microsoft’s cloud franchise; if AI compute and datacenter spending keeps rising faster than revenue monetization, cloud margins and the company’s valuation anchor both come under pressure.
Also named: AMZN · GOOGL · ORCL · NVDA · ANET · SMCI
- #10Impact5.2%FavorableDirectThis Week's Tech Earnings Could Be a ‘Validation Moment' for the AI Trade25d ago
Azure hosts a large share of AI workloads, so continued enterprise AI spend would reinforce both cloud growth and the monetization case for Copilot.
Also named: NVDA · AMD · AVGO · GOOGL · ORCL · SMCI
The rest, archived by time · 260
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $331.8B · latest quarter up 18.8% YoY · reported FY net income of $133.7B · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$331.8B
2026-06
Latest Q YoY
+18.8%
Gross margin
67.9%
FY net income
$133.7B
Diluted EPS
$18
Short-sale volume share
28.2%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 37.7% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 91/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$4.89 vs $4.71+3.82%
- Jun 2026$4.74 vs $4.21+12.59%
- Mar 2026$4.27 vs $4.07+4.91%
- Dec 2025$4.14 vs $3.88+6.7%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 7% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 7 upward revisions over the past four weeks. Analysts made 4 downward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $440.00–$750.00 · Consensus $632.48
Buy / hold / sell 34 / 4 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:20.977Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $4.86 · $4.81–$4.97 · 14 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 7 / 4
Estimate dispersion 3.3%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:20.904Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $530.62
MA10 $529.48
MA20 $529.64
MA60 $514.99
Last completed-session close $523.00 (+0.36%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.70×
Prior 20-session range $504.96–$559.15 · MA20 change over five sessions -0.37% · CMF20 -0.02
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
Confirmation to watch: a close above $559.15 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $504.96 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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