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NFLXNetflix

$62.37-0.51%Delayed market dataStreamingMedia & entertainment · 11 peers →

Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions
$62.37 USD2026-11-13 17:50 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Below defense; watch reduction conditions

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

To defense +0.3%To breakout +3.5%
Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $61.39 · Breakout $73.07

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $62.55 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $64.56 → consider a staged addition

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

ENTRY CONCLUSION

Watch — hold off on buying the dip

The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.

The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.

Why

Netflix still has the profile of a high-quality content and earnings-compounding business, but the evidence supports a cautious neutral stance rather than an aggressive rerating: the stock is at 69.74, below the 60-day moving average of 74.68, only near the 5/10/20-day averages, with a mixed technical picture and a rejection pattern, while volume is just 0.70x the 20-day average. Relative to SPY and most peers, it is not showing clear strength. Fundamentally, Q2 EPS slightly beat expectations (0.80 vs. 0.79), but Nasdaq’s average target of 88.78 is only an external valuation anchor, not a catalyst, and it cannot override the weak price/volume structure. On financing, the company completed a $1 billion 2036 note offering to refinance maturing debt and for general corporate purposes, confirming refinancing access but not supporting a claim of risk-free expansion. The core case remains intact over the long run, but near-term upside depends on technical repair, relative strength recovery, and continued earnings delivery.

Research as of 2026-10-19T19:39:37.151Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T17:34:34.000Z

VIX 19.762026-11-13T17:34:31.000Z

Dollar index 103.402026-11-13T17:39:33.000Z

Market and sector reference

NFLX -0.42% · SPY -0.68% · Peer average +1.00% (CHTR, CMCSA, DIS, LYV, RBLX)

2026-11-13T17:45:38.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Related news and impact paths

Recent news related to this stock

20 direct · 4 2nd-order · 0 thematic

Ranked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

The rest, archived by time · 14

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data

Annual revenue $45.2B · latest quarter up 11.8% YoY · reported FY net income of $11.0B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.

FY revenue

$45.2B

2025-12

Latest Q YoY

+11.8%

Gross margin

9.9%

FY net income

$11.0B

Diluted EPS

$2.58

Short-sale volume share

34.7%

2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 30.9% · near recent average

Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.

🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)

Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.

Historical results versus analyst expectations

🎯 Market expectations

Estimate context score High · 80/100

Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data

Next quarter (Dec 2026) consensus$0.67Estimate range $0.66 ~ $0.71 · 11 analystsRevisions (4w):↓10
History: actual vs consensusavg +0.3%
  • Sep 2026$0.87 vs $0.82+6.1%
  • Jun 2026$0.80 vs $0.79+1.27%
  • Mar 2026$0.70 vs $0.76-7.89%
  • Dec 2025$0.56 vs $0.55+1.82%

The takeaway

The average EPS surprise in the quarters shown is small. Positive and negative surprises can offset each other, so review each quarter separately. Analysts made 10 downward revisions over the past four weeks.

Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $57.00–$125.00 · Consensus $85.00

Buy / hold / sell 23 / 9 / 2

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T17:51:16.599Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.67 · $0.66–$0.71 · 11 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 10

Estimate dispersion 7.5%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T17:51:15.346Z
Financial inputs and original sources

gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-19T19:39:37.151Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit

Cash: 18093 USD_millions · 2026-06-30
“cash and cash equivalents of $18,093 million”

Debt: 1000 USD_millions · 2026-07-22
“completed a registered public offering of $1 billion in principal amount of 5.250% senior unsecured notes due 2036”

Additional equity funding: 0 USD_millions · 2026-07-22
“The Company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for the repayment at maturity of its outstanding 4.375% Senior Notes due 2026, and for general corporate purposes.”

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Downtrend structure

MA5 $63.57

MA10 $63.76

MA20 $64.76

MA60 $71.49

Last completed-session close $62.69 (-2.87%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.67×

Prior 20-session range $61.39–$73.07 · MA20 change over five sessions -2.76% · CMF20 -0.11

  • Distribution-like weak closes (inference)

Confirmation to watch: a close above $73.07 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $61.39 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

Price and news

Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.

Related news

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228 related news records are available with Pro.

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05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

When to reconsider

  • The stock reclaims and holds the 60-day moving average and at least the 20-day moving average
  • Volume returns to at least the 20-day average, indicating the repair is not a low-volume bounce
  • Subsequent earnings continue to deliver EPS/profitability, and next-quarter expectations stay stable or move higher
  • Relative underperformance versus SPY and media/streaming peers narrows, with price action no longer persistently lagging the peer average

What would invalidate the thesis

  • Failure to recover the 20-day moving average quickly, followed by a break of the 66.54 support level
  • Peers and the broad market continue to strengthen while NFLX remains relatively weak
  • A later earnings report misses consensus EPS, or management guidance on growth/profitability weakens
  • Deteriorating refinancing conditions or higher funding costs reduce the buffer created by the known debt refinance
Additional risk evidence and model detail
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Market View

Crowding

Risk temperature

Tail risk

Triggers

Price and volume

Insider signals

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