Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $157.24 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $175.41 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
ENTRY CONCLUSION
Watch — hold off on buying the dip
The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.
The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.
Why
Palantir beat expectations in both Q1 and Q2 2026, has abundant cash and essentially no debt, and the technical trend remains constructive. However, the stock is already near its 20-day moving average with clear overhead resistance, while expectations for high-quality growth are elevated. Continued beats and any upward revision to near-term EPS estimates remain catalysts, but slower growth, softer guidance, or another rise in rates/VIX could quickly trigger multiple compression.
Research as of 2026-10-20T01:22:21.626Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:39:54.000Z
VIX 20.222026-11-13T16:39:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.362026-11-13T16:44:56.000Z
Market and sector reference
PLTR -2.25% · SPY -0.94% · Peer average +0.80% (ADBE, ADSK, APP, CRM, DDOG, HUBS)
2026-11-13T16:55:14.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
26 direct · 2 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact5.5%AdverseDirectPalantir Grows Revenue 96% as New Deals Slow: Rapid Earnings Reaction11d ago
Revenue remains strong, but slower new deal formation suggests future growth could decelerate from a very high base, which matters because the stock is priced off sustained hypergrowth.
Also named: CRWD · S · ACN · CACI · NVDA · MSFT
- #2Impact5.5%FavorableDirectWhat to Expect in Markets This Week: Apple, Palantir Report; October Jobs Data Lands12d ago
PLTR has delivered repeated large beats over the past four quarters, so the market already expects an outperformance; the real incremental signal is whether growth continues broadening from government into commercial accounts and whether guidance is raised again.
Also named: AAPL · QCOM · SWKS · QRVO · AVGO · TSM
Government and defense customers prioritize deployable, auditable, production-ready AI systems, supporting renewals and new contract wins.
Also named: MSFT · CRM · LMT · RTX · AMZN · GOOGL
- #4Impact6%FavorableDirectAll Eyes Will Be on Palantir on Nov. 2. Here's What It Must Say to Keep the Run Going.22d ago
This is the headline name, and the stock trades on sustained high growth and guide-ups; with a history of averaging roughly +28.9% EPS beats over the last four quarters, the bar is high, so another clear upside surprise can sustain its premium, though the effect should be capped given the already rich valuation.
Also named: SNOWFLAKE · MONGODB · LDOS · BAH · DDOG · CRWD
- #5Impact4.5%FavorableDirectPalantir Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Sovereign AI Demand and Outlook10d ago
Palantir has the most direct government penetration, and the sovereign AI narrative strengthens expectations for contract renewals and expansions across defense and public-sector accounts.
Also named: SNOW · DDOG · MDB · BAH · LDOS · SAIC
Government contracts remain a key pillar of Palantir’s revenue and margin profile, so confirmation of seat expansion, renewals and defense use-cases would directly support the stock.
Also named: SNOW · CRWD · SAIC · LDOS
- #7Impact4%FavorableDirectAI Trade in Full Focus: AAPL & PLTR Earnings Ahead, MRVL Buying LITE, SPCX Eyes Boost Mobile11d ago
Given its high-growth, high-margin profile, Palantir will be seen as a direct beneficiary of continued AI software budget deployment as long as it maintains strong guidance.
Also named: MRVL · LITE · AAOI · CREE · SNOW · DDOG
PLTR’s key drivers are government renewals and commercial AI platform expansion; continued acceleration in bookings and revenue would directly support its premium multiple.
Also named: LITE · MRVL · AAPL · QCOM · SWKS · AVAV
- #9Impact3.8%FavorableDirectPLTR at Peak Acceleration? Kyle Reidhead Sees AI Pushing Earnings Further11d ago
Palantir’s current revenue scale and high gross margin show its AI platform is already monetizing; if growth persists, the market will keep assigning a richer revenue multiple.
Also named: SNOW · MDB · CRM · NVDA · MSFT
- #10Impact3.5%AdverseDirectOptions traders are getting anxious on Palantir and Apple ahead of earnings11d ago
Palantir has beaten estimates by an average of 28.9% over the last four quarters, so the market has built in a strong high-growth cadence; a merely modest beat could be read as slowing momentum and may not justify further multiple expansion.
Also named: AAPL · 2357.TW · SNOW · DDOG · QCOM · AVGO
The rest, archived by time · 18
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $4.5B · latest quarter up 95.9% YoY · reported FY net income of $1.6B · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$4.5B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+95.9%
Gross margin
82.4%
FY net income
$1.6B
Diluted EPS
$0.69
Short-sale volume share
44%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 56.7% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score High · 73/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$0.32 vs $0.320%
- Jun 2026$0.31 vs $0.28+10.71%
- Mar 2026$0.25 vs $0.22+13.64%
- Dec 2025$0.24 vs $0.17+41.18%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 16.4% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 6 upward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $80.00–$273.00 · Consensus $229.09
Buy / hold / sell 18 / 5 / 2
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:55:18.636Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.41 · $0.38–$0.45 · 11 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 6 / 2
Estimate dispersion 17.1%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:55:18.478ZFinancial inputs and original sources
gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-20T01:22:21.626Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit
Cash: 2291.631 USD_millions · 2026-03-31
“Cash and cash equivalents $ 2,291,631”
Fully diluted shares: 2570.924 shares_millions · 2026-03-31
“Weighted-average shares of common stock outstanding used in computing earnings per share attributable to common stockholders, diluted 2,570,924 2,552,818”
04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Downtrend structure
MA5 $168.48
MA10 $170.69
MA20 $183.26
MA60 $184.03
Last completed-session close $171.58 (-0.48%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.47×
Prior 20-session range $152.60–$203.55 · MA20 change over five sessions -4.83% · CMF20 0.03
Confirmation to watch: a close above $203.55 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $152.60 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
When to reconsider
- The stock closes back above and breaks through the $212.94 resistance level on expanding volume.
- The next earnings report or guidance again beats consensus materially, with analyst EPS estimates revised higher.
- Commercial growth continues to outpace government growth, so the growth mix does not become overly concentrated.
- The 10-year Treasury yield and VIX do not rise materially, limiting additional discount-rate pressure on a premium-growth stock.
What would invalidate the thesis
- A close below the $176.76 support level on heavier volume would weaken the near-to-intermediate uptrend.
- If the next report no longer beats expectations, or guidance is cut/growth slows materially, the earnings-momentum thesis breaks.
- If commercial growth slows sharply, the market may compress the growth premium.
- If rates keep rising and risk appetite worsens, further multiple expansion becomes difficult.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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