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SMCISuper Micro

$26.85-0.52%Delayed market dataAI serversAI data centers & compute infra · 11 peers →

Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions
$26.85 USD2026-11-13 19:38 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Hold and monitor; no addition yet

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

To defense -4.3%To breakout +16.2%
Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $26.74 · Breakout $29.52

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $25.70 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $31.19 → consider a staged addition

Completed session: 2026-11-12 · Completed-session volume ratio 2.61× · MA20 $31.52

Range basis session: 2026-11-12 · Yahoo Finance

Level methodology and recent changes

Near term: trigger levels use the five sessions preceding the latest completed session, never that session’s own high/low. Confirmation requires a close beyond the boundary and 1.5× prior-20-session average volume. The crossed level becomes the new reference; any next boundary comes from observed prior-20-session highs/lows. The five-session range rolls after the next completed session, not with intraday quotes.

Current base window starts: 2026-11-06

  • 2026-11-05 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $29.39–$35.85 → —–$29.39 · Close $27.08 / 1.57×
  • 2026-11-04 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $30.27–$36.40 → —–$30.27 · Close $29.60 / 2.35×
  • 2026-08-13 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $29.33–$38.15 → $38.15–— · Close $39.16 / 2.19×
  • 2026-08-12 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $29.33–$33.39 → $33.39–— · Close $37.61 / 3.37×
  • 2026-07-22 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $23.38–$28.35 → $28.35–$31.22 · Close $30.56 / 3.93×

Tilt shows price location, not a probability. Combine technical signals with company research and your risk tolerance. No trades are executed.

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

ENTRY CONCLUSION

Watch — hold off on buying the dip

The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.

The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.

Why

SMCI is in an “active catalyst but weak technicals” setup: the quarterly results and dividend announcement were released on Nov. 3, and the CFO transition was completed on Oct. 14. However, as of the Nov. 3 close, the stock was still at $31.39, below the 5/10/20/60-day moving averages, in a downtrend, and higher volume did not translate into a strong close, so the rebound has not yet become a trend reversal. Near-term support is $30.27 and overhead resistance is $45.77. Macro conditions are not especially supportive either, with a 10-year yield of 4.952%, VIX at 20.83, and the dollar index at 101.4. Analyst consensus for next-quarter EPS shows only a modest upward revision bias (6 analysts, 1 up, 0 down), but coverage is thin and dispersion is high, so it cannot offset the weak tape and the post-event verification phase. The supplied evidence does not reliably support unrestricted cash, debt, fully diluted shares, or incremental equity funding needs, so all four financial inputs are null; because all four are not adequately supported, no valuation scenarios are appropriate.

Research as of 2026-11-04T02:34:36.152Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.15%2026-11-13T19:21:54.000Z

VIX 19.072026-11-13T19:21:46.000Z

Dollar index 103.392026-11-13T19:27:00.000Z

Market and sector reference

SMCI -3.09%

2026-11-13T16:58:03.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Related news and impact paths

Recent news related to this stock

28 direct · 80 2nd-order · 0 thematic

Ranked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

The rest, archived by time · 98

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data

Annual revenue $39.1B · latest quarter up 297.5% YoY · reported FY net income of $2.2B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.

FY revenue

$39.1B

2026-06

Latest Q YoY

+297.5%

Gross margin

10.8%

FY net income

$2.2B

Diluted EPS

$3.65

Short-sale volume share

42.5%

2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 46.4% · near recent average

Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.

🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)

Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.

Historical results versus analyst expectations

🎯 Market expectations

Estimate context score Medium · 65/100

Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data

Next quarter (Dec 2026) consensus$1.66Estimate range $1.58 ~ $1.76 · 6 analystsRevisions (4w):↑6
History: actual vs consensusavg +78.2%
  • Sep 2026$1.70 vs $1.04+63.46%
  • Jun 2026$1.62 vs $0.56+189.29%
  • Mar 2026$0.68 vs $0.55+23.64%
  • Dec 2025$0.56 vs $0.41+36.59%

The takeaway

EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 78.2% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 6 upward revisions over the past four weeks.

Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $18.00–$65.00 · Consensus $42.55

Buy / hold / sell 3 / 6 / 3

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T19:39:45.705Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $1.66 · $1.58–$1.76 · 6 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 6 / 0

Estimate dispersion 10.8%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T19:39:44.654Z
Financial inputs and original sources

gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-11-04T02:34:36.152Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Downtrend structure

MA5 $28.51

MA10 $29.40

MA20 $31.52

MA60 $36.82

Last completed-session close $26.99 (-11.30%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 2.61×

Prior 20-session range $25.81–$37.45 · MA20 change over five sessions -7.24% · CMF20 -0.26

  • Heavy-volume decline; selling pressure
  • Long upper wick; rally rejected
  • Distribution-like weak closes (inference)

Confirmation to watch: a close above $37.45 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $25.81 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

Price and news

Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.

Related news

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05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

When to reconsider

  • The stock reclaims and holds above $33.5, with the 5-day and 10-day averages turning higher.
  • The next earnings update confirms earnings resilience and the upward revision trend for next-quarter EPS broadens.
  • Upside sessions continue on volume above the 20-day average without obvious rejection.
  • Price breaks the $35.54 20-day moving average and then tests the $45.77 resistance zone.

What would invalidate the thesis

  • A break below $30.27 support that cannot be reclaimed on rebounds.
  • Earnings or guidance fail to support current expectations and analyst revisions turn downward.
  • The stock keeps trading below the 20-day and 60-day moving averages with no trend repair.
  • If later disclosure shows rising funding pressure or an incremental equity financing need, the valuation-repair thesis breaks.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
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Market View

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Risk temperature

Tail risk

Triggers

Price and volume

Insider signals

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