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SMTCSemtech

$111.67-6.51%Delayed market dataAI Server Supply Chain

Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions
$111.55 USD2026-11-13 16:48 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Hold and monitor; no addition yet

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

To defense -16.5%To breakout +16.1%
Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $90.00 · Breakout $122.01

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $93.17 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $129.54 → consider a staged addition

Completed session: 2026-11-12 · Completed-session volume ratio 0.69× · MA20 $127.01

Range basis session: 2026-11-12 · Yahoo Finance

Level methodology and recent changes

Near term: trigger levels use the five sessions preceding the latest completed session, never that session’s own high/low. Confirmation requires a close beyond the boundary and 1.5× prior-20-session average volume. The crossed level becomes the new reference; any next boundary comes from observed prior-20-session highs/lows. The five-session range rolls after the next completed session, not with intraday quotes.

Current base window starts: 2026-11-06

  • 2026-11-05 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $108.14–$144.40 → —–$108.14 · Close $91.54 / 1.94×
  • 2026-10-15 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $159.03–$196.99 → —–$159.03 · Close $144.21 / 2.80×
  • 2026-10-12 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $178.10–$200.10 → $167.11–$178.10 · Close $168.28 / 1.80×
  • 2026-09-18 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $146.91–$182.13 → $182.13–— · Close $185.00 / 1.70×
  • 2026-09-08 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $124.83–$148.03 → $148.03–— · Close $162.62 / 1.53×

Tilt shows price location, not a probability. Combine technical signals with company research and your risk tolerance. No trades are executed.

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:29:34.000Z

VIX 20.122026-11-13T16:29:31.000Z

Dollar index 103.342026-11-13T16:34:40.000Z

Market and sector reference

SMTC -6.51% · SPY -1.01%

2026-11-13T16:40:07.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Related news and impact paths

Recent news related to this stock

Our feed has no recent coverage linked to this stock. That does not mean there are no events affecting its price.

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data

Annual revenue $1.0B · latest quarter up 15.9% YoY · reported FY net loss of $40M · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.

FY revenue

$1.0B

2026-01

Latest Q YoY

+15.9%

Gross margin

51.6%

FY net loss

$40M

Diluted EPS

$-0.46

Short-sale volume share

24.1%

2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 38.3% · below recent average

Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.

🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)

Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.

Historical results versus analyst expectations

🎯 Market expectations

Estimate context score Medium · 69/100

Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data

Next quarter (Oct 2026) consensus$0.92Estimate range $0.86 ~ $0.98 · 8 analystsRevisions (4w):↑6
History: actual vs consensusavg +8.8%
  • Jul 2026$0.51 vs $0.41+24.39%
  • Apr 2026$0.30 vs $0.300%
  • Jan 2026$0.29 vs $0.27+7.41%
  • Oct 2025$0.29 vs $0.28+3.57%

The takeaway

EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 8.8% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 6 upward revisions over the past four weeks.

Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $186.00–$300.00 · Consensus $216.50

Buy / hold / sell 12 / 1 / 0

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:49:04.211Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Oct 2026) $0.92 · $0.86–$0.98 · 8 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 6 / 0

Estimate dispersion 13.0%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:49:04.165Z

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Downtrend structure

MA5 $115.56

MA10 $115.75

MA20 $127.01

MA60 $150.21

Last completed-session close $119.44 (-4.62%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.69×

Prior 20-session range $90.00–$155.83 · MA20 change over five sessions -9.12% · CMF20 -0.13

  • Distribution-like weak closes (inference)

Confirmation to watch: a close above $155.83 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $90.00 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

Price and news

Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.

Related news

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05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.

Additional risk evidence and model detail
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Market View

Crowding

Risk temperature

Tail risk

Triggers

Price and volume

Insider signals

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