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TSLATesla

$390.19-1.83%Delayed market dataEV / autonomousAutos & mobility · 10 peers →

Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions
$388.80 USD2026-11-13 16:38 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Hold and monitor; no addition yet

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

To defense -10.6%To breakout +3.2%
Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $338.15 · Breakout $414.23

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $347.60 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $401.22 → consider a staged addition

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

ENTRY CONCLUSION

Watch — hold off on buying the dip

The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.

The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.

Why

Tesla has not yet demonstrated a verifiable earnings inflection: the last four reported quarters all missed consensus, and the latest quarter posted EPS of 0.04 versus 0.32 expected. Next-quarter consensus EPS is only 0.22. Technically, the stock at 375.83 sits between support at 345.88 and resistance at 388.56, slightly above MA5 and MA60 but below MA10; volume is only 0.33x the 20-day average and CMF20 is -0.03, so the rebound is not fully confirmed. Meanwhile, on 2026-09-29 Tesla signed a new $30.0 billion unsecured credit package and said it does not currently plan to draw in 2026, which improves liquidity but also raises future interest-cost and refinancing sensitivity. Bottom line: near-term tradeability depends on a volume-backed breakout and improving earnings expectations; a break below support, continued weak volume, or another large earnings miss would invalidate the bullish narrative.

Research as of 2026-10-20T14:42:10.791Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z

VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z

Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z

Market and sector reference

TSLA -1.74%

2026-11-13T15:00:49.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Related news and impact paths

Recent news related to this stock

54 direct · 6 2nd-order · 0 thematic

Ranked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

The rest, archived by time · 50

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data

Annual revenue $94.8B · latest quarter down 0.2% YoY · reported FY net income of $3.8B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.

FY revenue

$94.8B

2025-12

Latest Q YoY

-0.2%

Gross margin

18%

FY net income

$3.8B

Diluted EPS

$1.18

Short-sale volume share

46.7%

2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 49.3% · near recent average

Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.

🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)

Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.

Historical results versus analyst expectations

🎯 Market expectations

Estimate context score Low · 42/100

Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data

This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.

Next quarter (Dec 2026) consensus$0.24Estimate range $0.10 ~ $0.79 · 10 analystsRevisions (4w):↑2↓5
History: actual vs consensusavg -29.9%
  • Sep 2026$0.20 vs $0.22-9.09%
  • Jun 2026$0.04 vs $0.32-87.5%
  • Mar 2026$0.18 vs $0.21-14.29%
  • Dec 2025$0.31 vs $0.34-8.82%

Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $24.86–$550.00 · Consensus $411.86

Buy / hold / sell 13 / 10 / 2

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:59.747Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.24 · $0.10–$0.79 · 10 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 5

Estimate dispersion 287.5%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:59.688Z
Financial inputs and original sources

gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-20T14:42:10.791Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit

Debt: 30000 USD_millions · 2026-09-29
“$20.0 billion senior unsecured three-year delayed draw term loan facility ... • $8.0 billion senior unsecured five-year revolving facility ... • $2.0 billion senior unsecured 364-day revolving credit facility”

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Uptrend structure

MA5 $380.87

MA10 $383.54

MA20 $383.59

MA60 $371.01

Last completed-session close $397.45 (+1.69%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.71×

Prior 20-session range $338.15–$414.23 · MA20 change over five sessions +0.51% · CMF20 0.07

Confirmation to watch: a close above $414.23 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $338.15 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

Price and news

Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.

Related news

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05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

When to reconsider

  • The stock breaks out above 388.56 and holds there on stronger volume, showing the move is not just a low-volume rebound.
  • Next-quarter EPS estimates begin to rise, and actual results no longer materially miss consensus.
  • The new credit facilities continue to act as a liquidity backstop without a clear increase in interest burden or refinancing stress.

What would invalidate the thesis

  • A break below 345.88 support on rising volume would signal a weaker short-term structure.
  • Persistently sub-average volume with negative CMF would show the rebound lacks sponsorship.
  • Another material earnings miss versus consensus, or evidence that the expanded credit load is pressuring profitability, would undermine the thesis.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
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Market View

Crowding

Risk temperature

Tail risk

Triggers

Price and volume

Insider signals

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