Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $347.60 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $401.22 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
ENTRY CONCLUSION
Watch — hold off on buying the dip
The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.
The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.
Why
Tesla has not yet demonstrated a verifiable earnings inflection: the last four reported quarters all missed consensus, and the latest quarter posted EPS of 0.04 versus 0.32 expected. Next-quarter consensus EPS is only 0.22. Technically, the stock at 375.83 sits between support at 345.88 and resistance at 388.56, slightly above MA5 and MA60 but below MA10; volume is only 0.33x the 20-day average and CMF20 is -0.03, so the rebound is not fully confirmed. Meanwhile, on 2026-09-29 Tesla signed a new $30.0 billion unsecured credit package and said it does not currently plan to draw in 2026, which improves liquidity but also raises future interest-cost and refinancing sensitivity. Bottom line: near-term tradeability depends on a volume-backed breakout and improving earnings expectations; a break below support, continued weak volume, or another large earnings miss would invalidate the bullish narrative.
Research as of 2026-10-20T14:42:10.791Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z
VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z
Market and sector reference
TSLA -1.74%
2026-11-13T15:00:49.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
54 direct · 6 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
With nearly $95B in revenue and recent quarterly revenue already turning slightly negative, further pressure on its growth engines would push the market to cut delivery, margin, and valuation premium assumptions.
Also named: RIVN · LCID · AAPL · NVDA · BYDDF · NIO
- #2Impact5.2%AdverseDirectMusk's Election Bet Backfires on Tesla, and Your Index Fund Owns a Piece of It9d ago
If Musk’s politics keep damaging the brand, Tesla faces a direct demand discount as a highly visible consumer brand; the effect is more on valuation and marginal orders than on full-year revenue, so the move should be measured.
Also named: GM · F · VOO · IVV · SPY · MGA
- #3Impact9.5%AdverseDirectElon Musk's Tesla and SpaceX lose over $420 billion in combined market cap after midterms8d ago
Tesla is directly named, and the headline highlights a huge market-cap wipeout, implying a re-rating of its autonomy, robotics and growth premium; however, because the move is already described in the headline, the incremental downside from here should be more restrained than the raw number suggests.
Also named: IRDM · RKLB · MBLY · NVDA · ALB · SQM
- #4Impact6.5%FavorableDirectElon Musk Says ‘I've Never Seen Anything Grow This Fast.' One Product is the Key to Musk's Plans to Cross $1 Trillion in Revenue.23d ago
Musk directly flagged the product’s rapid growth, boosting the option value of Tesla’s autonomy and AI businesses and lifting the market’s pricing of future software and services revenue.
Also named: RIVN · LCID · NVDA · AMD · AVGO · META
- #5Impact6.2%AdverseDirectTesla's Automotive Revenue Fell 3%, and Energy Generation and Storage Tumbled 16%. Should Investors Still View Tesla as a Car Company?21d ago
Automotive revenue is Tesla’s core valuation anchor; the decline directly lowers expectations for deliveries, per-unit profitability, and the stock’s multiple.
Also named: RIVN · LCID · APTIV · MAGNA INTERNATIONAL · BORGWARNER · ENPH
- #6Impact4.8%FavorableDirectTesla's Cybercab Reaches Dallas in November, and Nevada Just Cleared 5,000 Robotaxis in Las Vegas. Here's the Number That Makes the Bulls Right.13d ago
Cybercab entering Dallas and Las Vegas clearing 5,000 robotaxis directly reinforces Tesla’s FSD subscription, fleet-operations, and future mobility-network revenue story, but the market has been pricing this pathway for years, so it is more of a valuation support than an immediate earnings realization.
Also named: UBER · LYFT · RIVN · GM · NVDA · QCOM
- #7Impact4.5%AdverseDirectTesla Faces a Robo-Taxi Revolution in China. Musk's Ambitions Have a Tough Test.11d ago
China is one of Tesla’s most important overseas markets, and the robo-taxi narrative is one of the most valuation-sensitive long-dated options in the stock; tougher local competition and regulation would push out monetization timing.
Also named: XPEV · NIO · LI AUTO · 002594.SZ · 9868.HK · 2015.HK
If investment in AI training, robotics and autonomy comes in below prior expectations, investors will cut long-term margin and platform-monetization assumptions.
Also named: RIVN · LCID · NVDA · MBLY · AMD · ON
Direct pressure on auto gross margin and operating leverage means the market is likely to trim full-year EPS and the valuation multiple if Tesla leans on pricing to defend volumes.
Also named: BYDDF · LI · ALV · BWA · TSM · LAC
- #10Impact3.8%AdverseDirectTesla to wind down Cybertruck production at Texas gigafactory next year, Musk says7d ago
Cybertruck is one of Tesla’s most watched new models; winding down production next year reduces Texas plant utilization and weakens the product mix, which can weigh on expectations for delivery growth and gross-margin recovery even though it is not the company’s largest revenue driver.
Also named: RIVN · F · MGA · APTV · 005930.KS
The rest, archived by time · 50
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $94.8B · latest quarter down 0.2% YoY · reported FY net income of $3.8B · short-sale volume share near its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$94.8B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
-0.2%
Gross margin
18%
FY net income
$3.8B
Diluted EPS
$1.18
Short-sale volume share
46.7%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 49.3% · near recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-10-27SCHEDULE 13G/ABlackRock, Inc.
- 2026-06-17SCHEDULE 13G/AMusk Elon
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 42/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026$0.20 vs $0.22-9.09%
- Jun 2026$0.04 vs $0.32-87.5%
- Mar 2026$0.18 vs $0.21-14.29%
- Dec 2025$0.31 vs $0.34-8.82%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $24.86–$550.00 · Consensus $411.86
Buy / hold / sell 13 / 10 / 2
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:59.747Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $0.24 · $0.10–$0.79 · 10 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 2 / 5
Estimate dispersion 287.5%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:38:59.688ZFinancial inputs and original sources
gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-20T14:42:10.791Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit
Debt: 30000 USD_millions · 2026-09-29
“$20.0 billion senior unsecured three-year delayed draw term loan facility ... • $8.0 billion senior unsecured five-year revolving facility ... • $2.0 billion senior unsecured 364-day revolving credit facility”
04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Uptrend structure
MA5 $380.87
MA10 $383.54
MA20 $383.59
MA60 $371.01
Last completed-session close $397.45 (+1.69%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.71×
Prior 20-session range $338.15–$414.23 · MA20 change over five sessions +0.51% · CMF20 0.07
Confirmation to watch: a close above $414.23 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $338.15 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
When to reconsider
- The stock breaks out above 388.56 and holds there on stronger volume, showing the move is not just a low-volume rebound.
- Next-quarter EPS estimates begin to rise, and actual results no longer materially miss consensus.
- The new credit facilities continue to act as a liquidity backstop without a clear increase in interest burden or refinancing stress.
What would invalidate the thesis
- A break below 345.88 support on rising volume would signal a weaker short-term structure.
- Persistently sub-average volume with negative CMF would show the rebound lacks sponsorship.
- Another material earnings miss versus consensus, or evidence that the expanded credit load is pressuring profitability, would undermine the thesis.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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