Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $341.51 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $379.56 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.14%2026-11-13T17:40:04.000Z
VIX 19.842026-11-13T17:40:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.402026-11-13T17:45:05.000Z
Market and sector reference
VLO -0.14% · SPY -0.67% · Peer average +0.76% (BKR, COP, CVX, DVN, EOG)
2026-11-13T17:56:08.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
3 direct · 1 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact3.2%Favorable2nd-orderExxonMobil's Refining Profits Are Set to Jump $4.5 Billion. Here's What XOM Investors Need to Know.28d ago
Valero is predominantly a refiner, so improved refining margins should feed quickly into EBITDA.
Also named: XOM · CVX · SHEL · PSX · MPC · DK
- #2Impact4.2%FavorableDirectBet on These Oil & Gas ETFs Capitalizing on the US-Iran War Windfall9d ago
Valero’s heavy refining mix makes it highly sensitive to crack spreads and inventory revaluation, directly driving quarterly earnings leverage.
Also named: XOM · CVX · XLE · PSX · MPC · DAL
- #3Impact3.5%FavorableDirectOil Crisis Worsens, Diesel Hits Record High: Here's How to Trade It59d ago
As one of the largest independent refiners, Valero has high distillate output, so widening crack spreads directly lift refining-segment profits.
Also named: XOM · CVX · COP · XLE · USO · MPC
Refiners primarily earn through crack spreads, and a rapid crude rally often erodes feedstock advantage unless product demand strengthens at the same time.
Also named: CVX · XOM · OXY · MPC · SLB · HAL
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $122.7B · latest quarter up 43.3% YoY · reported FY net income of $2.3B · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$122.7B
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
+43.3%
Gross margin
-0.4%
FY net income
$2.3B
Diluted EPS
$7.57
Short-sale volume share
38.4%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 50.3% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-07-31SCHEDULE 13GVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 36/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026$23.90 vs $21.28+12.31%
- Jun 2026$12.54 vs $9.87+27.05%
- Mar 2026$4.22 vs $3.07+37.46%
- Dec 2025$3.82 vs $3.22+18.63%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $358.00–$530.00 · Consensus $446.53
Buy / hold / sell 8 / 8 / 1
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T17:56:14.348Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $19.32 · $13.92–$22.44 · 6 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 6 / 0
Estimate dispersion 44.1%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T17:56:13.278Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $358.51
MA10 $367.79
MA20 $392.94
MA60 $391.67
Last completed-session close $374.95 (+3.09%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.75×
Prior 20-session range $341.51–$456.50 · MA20 change over five sessions -5.27% · CMF20 -0.02
Confirmation to watch: a close above $456.50 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $341.51 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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