WULFTeraWulf
$12.12-7.05%Delayed market dataHPC data centersAI data centers & compute infra · 11 peers →Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $10.00 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $13.82 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
ENTRY CONCLUSION
Watch — hold off on buying the dip
The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.
The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.
Why
TeraWulf is shifting from a pure-mining narrative toward long-term HPC/data-center leasing and infrastructure expansion. The positives are a 20-year Anthropic lease for roughly 401 MW, the Muskie contracted power increase to 1 GW, and about $530 million of consideration tied to the Fluidstack-related transaction, all of which improve future revenue visibility. However, the technical picture remains weak: the close at 12.06 is below MA5/10/20/60, MA20 is still falling, CMF20 is negative, and the pattern looks distribution-like; this reads more like a news-driven rebound than a trend reversal. The fundamental constraint remains: Q2 2026 EPS missed consensus materially, and further expansion still depends on a larger revolver and additional senior secured debt. The Nasdaq aggregate target is above the current price, but it cannot override persistent losses and execution/financing uncertainty; upside exists only if financing, construction, power delivery, and permitting all land as planned.
Research as of 2026-10-20T01:48:53.759Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z
VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z
Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z
Market and sector reference
WULF -7.75%
2026-11-13T15:45:46.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
4 direct · 0 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact6.5%AdverseDirectWULF 8-K — Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement · Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation21d ago
As the named company, the new obligation lifts leverage and refinancing risk, which matters more given only $152M of revenue and a sharp recent revenue decline.
Also named: IREN · MARA · CORZ · CIFR
WULF is also framed against CoreWeave, and the lower-leverage narrative should help lift the valuation base for its compute and data-center assets.
Also named: CIFR · IREN · HUT · CRWV · CORZ
- #3Impact3.8%FavorableDirectFluor Signs EPC Contract with TeraWulf for Large-Scale Data Center Campus in Kentucky9d ago
The new EPC contract increases confidence in project execution, likely leading investors to mark up TeraWulf’s expansion timeline.
Also named: FLR · J · ACM · VRT · ETN · SMCI
- #4Impact3.2%AdverseDirectNeocloud Stocks Fell More Than Hyperscalers After Election Night. Here's Why Exposure Differs.8d ago
If demand expectations for AI racks and GPUs cool, compute platforms that rely on a high-growth financing narrative see faster multiple compression.
Also named: AMZN · MSFT · ORCL · CRWV · IREN · NVDA
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
Annual revenue $152M · latest quarter down 69.5% YoY · reported FY net loss of $661M · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
FY revenue
$152M
2025-12
Latest Q YoY
-69.5%
Gross margin
39.2%
FY net loss
$661M
Diluted EPS
$-1.66
Short-sale volume share
24.1%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 40.5% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-10-19SCHEDULE 13G/ABANK OF NOVA SCOTIA
- 2026-09-25SCHEDULE 13GGoogle LLC
- 2026-08-13SCHEDULE 13GMORGAN STANLEY
- 2026-08-10SCHEDULE 13G/AJANE STREET GROUP, LLC
- 2026-07-31SCHEDULE 13G/AVANGUARD PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT LLC
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Low · 36/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
This data has a low context score. Analyst coverage, disagreement, or revisions may limit its usefulness. Review the estimate range and underlying data.
- Sep 2026-$0.01 vs -$0.14+92.86%
- Jun 2026-$0.37 vs -$0.20-85%
- Mar 2026-$0.44 vs -$0.16-175%
- Dec 2025-$0.28 vs -$0.13-115.38%
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $14.00–$47.00 · Consensus $24.62
Buy / hold / sell 18 / 1 / 0
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:39:49.444Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.15 · $-0.23–$-0.07 · 8 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 0 / 6
Estimate dispersion 106.7%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:39:49.381ZFinancial inputs and original sources
gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-20T01:48:53.759Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit
04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $12.54
MA10 $11.97
MA20 $12.08
MA60 $14.30
Last completed-session close $13.04 (-2.40%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.69×
Prior 20-session range $9.51–$13.76 · MA20 change over five sessions -0.74% · CMF20 0.04
- Long upper wick; rally rejected
Confirmation to watch: a close above $13.76 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $9.51 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
When to reconsider
- Price reclaims and holds above the 20-day moving average, with MA20 flattening or turning up.
- Volume-backed breakout above the 17.93 resistance area, while relative strength stays better than SPY and peers.
- Subsequent announcements confirm financing is secured, with no material deterioration in incremental dilution pressure.
- HPC/lease projects stay on schedule, and the market starts assigning higher visibility to future cash flows.
What would invalidate the thesis
- Break below the 10.35 support area on volume, showing the rebound has lost sponsorship.
- MA20 keeps falling and price remains below MA5/10 for an extended period, indicating failed technical repair.
- Financing terms worsen or projects slip, forcing expansion capex to move out.
- Quarterly losses worsen materially again, or lease/power contracts fail to translate into verifiable revenue.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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