Key levels and trade conditions
Delayed quotes · Technical conditionsShowing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.
Hold and monitor; no addition yet
Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.
When does defense take priority?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close below $160.11 → consider reducing
When to consider adding?
Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.
Confirmed close above $170.92 → consider a staged addition
01Newstock overall assessment
The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.
Watch — await combined confirmation. An entry assessment has not yet been established.
02What happened recently
Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.
US 10Y yield 5.14%2026-11-13T18:50:54.000Z
VIX 19.262026-11-13T18:50:46.000Z
Dollar index 103.382026-11-13T18:55:59.000Z
Market and sector reference
XOM +0.12% · SPY -0.50% · Peer average +1.03% (BKR, COP, CVX, DVN, EOG)
2026-11-13T19:07:16.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.
Related news and impact paths
Recent news related to this stock
16 direct · 4 2nd-order · 0 thematicRanked by model assessment and recency. Labels use the original model impact, not expected returns. Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.
- #1Impact3.2%FavorableDirectExxon Is Up 59% This Year After Another Beat. This Is How High It Can Go.11d ago
A sharp year-over-year revenue increase and another earnings beat suggest stronger realized prices, output, or refining margins, directly lifting market expectations for full-year free cash flow and buybacks.
Also named: CVX · COP · EOG · SLB
- #2Impact3.2%FavorableDirectXOM 8-K — Results of Operations and Financial Condition · Regulation FD Disclosure14d ago
As the reporting company, stronger revenue and operating conditions directly support free cash flow, buybacks, and dividend durability, prompting a modest upward re-rating of near-term earnings resilience.
Also named: CVX · COP · SLB · HAL · PSX · NOV
- #3Impact3.8%FavorableDirectUBS portfolio manager: S&P 500 could hit 9,500 by June 2027 on AI, longevity, energy boom22d ago
If the energy cycle strengthens, integrated oil majors see higher upstream earnings and buyback capacity.
Also named: IVV · SPY · VOO · SPLG · SPXL · UPRO
- #4Impact4.2%FavorableDirectExxonMobil's Refining Profits Are Set to Jump $4.5 Billion. Here's What XOM Investors Need to Know.28d ago
The refining profit improvement flows straight into ExxonMobil's downstream segment and, absent a major oil-price swing, provides a cleaner boost to consolidated EPS.
Also named: CVX · SHEL · PSX · MPC · VLO · DK
As the direct subject of the headline, a Q3 print that sustains strong revenue growth and capital returns would directly support earnings and shareholder-yield expectations.
Also named: CVX · COP · OXY
- #6Impact2.8%FavorableDirectExxonMobil Holdings Corporation (XOM) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript14d ago
As the headline company, XOM would benefit if the call reinforces strong cash flow, buybacks and capital discipline, which would keep earnings resilience in the valuation.
Also named: CVX · COP · EOG · SLB · HAL · BKR
- #7Impact2.5%FavorableDirectExxon Is Nearing a Preliminary Deal to Invest in Venezuela's Oil Fields58d ago
The named party; a return to fields expropriated in 2007 opens a long-term reserves option, though a preliminary deal plus geopolitical risk keeps the near-term move modest.
Also named: CVX · SLB · HAL · USO
- #8Impact4.8%FavorableDirectBet on These Oil & Gas ETFs Capitalizing on the US-Iran War Windfall9d ago
Exxon’s large upstream oil and gas exposure means a higher crude risk premium directly lifts E&P margins and integrated earnings.
Also named: CVX · XLE · VLO · PSX · MPC · DAL
As the headline company, a continued combination of strong crude pricing and refining margins should keep revenue growth and EPS close to or slightly above consensus, supporting valuation and buyback capacity.
Also named: CVX · COP · SLB · HAL · BKR · VLO
- #10Impact4.2%FavorableDirectBuy CVX and XOM Amid Solid Q3 Earnings and Surging Crude Oil Prices11d ago
With recent quarterly revenue growth still strong, higher crude should amplify upstream and downstream margin leverage, supporting valuation and shareholder-return expectations.
Also named: CVX · OXY · MPC · SLB · HAL · BKR
The rest, archived by time · 10
03Is the company worth considering?
Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.
🏛️ Company factsSEC filings + FINRA official data
latest quarter up 32.7% YoY · short-sale volume share below its recent available-day average.
Latest Q YoY
+32.7%
Short-sale volume share
24.3%
2026-11-05 · Recent available-day avg 51.5% · below recent average
Short-sale volume as a share of trades covered by the FINRA file, not all market trading or outstanding short positions. Changes do not establish that short sellers are adding or covering positions.
🐋 Ownership filings (last 180 days)
Recent 13D/13G beneficial ownership filings, which may include amendments. A filing does not establish a recent purchase or a current holding, and its form type alone does not establish investment intent. Read the original filing for details.
- 2026-11-10SCHEDULE 13GSTATE STREET CORP
- 2026-10-30SCHEDULE 13GVANGUARD CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC
- 2026-10-27SCHEDULE 13GBlackRock, Inc.
Historical results versus analyst expectations
🎯 Market expectations
Estimate context score Medium · 53/100Nasdaq analyst consensus · currently available data
- Sep 2026$4.23 vs $3.90+8.46%
- Jun 2026$3.52 vs $3.68-4.35%
- Mar 2026$1.16 vs $1.07+8.41%
- Dec 2025$1.71 vs $1.68+1.79%
The takeaway
EPS exceeded the corresponding consensus estimates by an average of 3.6% in the quarters shown. This is not a hurdle for the next report or a forecast of the stock's reaction. Analysts made 4 upward revisions over the past four weeks.
Analyst estimates, not our forecast · not investment advice
Analyst consensus and disagreement
Target-price summary $162.00–$217.00 · Consensus $187.44
Buy / hold / sell 8 / 10 / 1
Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T19:07:19.780Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.
Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $4.23 · $3.50–$4.71 · 7 analysts
Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 4 / 2
Estimate dispersion 28.6%
Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T19:07:19.564Z04Is now a good time?
Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.
Technical structure · Mixed structure
MA5 $166.31
MA10 $171.05
MA20 $175.75
MA60 $167.96
Last completed-session close $169.78 (+1.84%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.86×
Prior 20-session range $160.11–$188.50 · MA20 change over five sessions -0.99% · CMF20 0.08
Confirmation to watch: a close above $188.50 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $160.11 weakens the setup.
Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12
Price and news
Historical prices and volume. Drag to pan; scroll to zoom.
Related news
05What would change our assessment?
Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.
Complete the company and technical cross-check before defining entry and invalidation conditions.
Additional risk evidence and model detail
Market View
Crowding
Risk temperature
Tail risk
Triggers
Price and volume
Insider signals
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