专项研究 · Dip Research

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Key levels and trade conditions

Delayed quotes · Technical conditions

$1.79 USD2026-11-13 16:40 UTC

Showing the near-term range, based on the latest 5 completed sessions and updated after each close.

Hold and monitor; no addition yet

Signals require closing-price and volume confirmation; review the company research below before acting.

Defense$1.70

Breakout$2.16

Toward defense ↙

To defense -4.8%To breakout +21.0%

Medium-term reference (not the near-term trigger)Defense $1.61 · Breakout $2.89

When does defense take priority?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close below $1.70 → consider reducing

When to consider adding?

Close beyond this level with session volume ≥ 1.5× the previous 20 completed sessions’ average.

Confirmed close above $2.16 → consider a staged addition

Completed session: 2026-11-12 · Completed-session volume ratio 0.68× · MA20 $2.13

Range basis session: 2026-11-12 · Yahoo Finance

Level methodology and recent changes

Near term: trigger levels use the five sessions preceding the latest completed session, never that session’s own high/low. Confirmation requires a close beyond the boundary and 1.5× prior-20-session average volume. The crossed level becomes the new reference; any next boundary comes from observed prior-20-session highs/lows. The five-session range rolls after the next completed session, not with intraday quotes.

Current base window starts: 2026-11-06

2026-11-05 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $1.86–$2.38 → —–$1.86 · Close $1.65 / 2.34×
2026-09-18 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $3.24–$3.75 → $3.75–— · Close $4.01 / 1.97×
2026-08-18 · Volume-confirmed breakdown · $3.28–$3.92 → —–$3.28 · Close $3.16 / 2.16×
2026-06-22 · Volume-confirmed breakout · $5.51–$6.42 → $6.42–— · Close $6.66 / 1.91×

Tilt shows price location, not a probability. Combine technical signals with company research and your risk tolerance. No trades are executed.

01Newstock overall assessment

The conclusion first, followed by the evidence that matters most.

ENTRY CONCLUSION

Watch — hold off on buying the dip

The valuation margin of safety, technical confirmation and market/estimate conditions are not all satisfied. No entry signal is issued.

The research does not currently establish an actionable entry price. Do not buy solely because the stock has fallen sharply; wait for the key conditions to be verified before reconsidering entry.

Why

KEEL is in a high-risk transition phase: Q2 2026 continuing operations revenue was $30.43 million and adjusted EBITDA was -$23.69 million, so the company remains loss-making while building out its platform. At the same time, as of 2026-08-07 it had about $698 million of unrestricted cash and about $121 million of unencumbered Bitcoin, for roughly $819 million of total liquidity, and it raised $458 million via convertible notes during the quarter. On the project side, Sherbrooke secured transfer of 96 MW of existing capacity and a land purchase agreement, Pennsylvania permitting is progressing, and commercial discussions are active, but revenue conversion is not yet stable or proven. Technically, the 2026-10-16 close was $2.31, below the 5/10/20/60-day MAs, with a negative 20-day slope, a downtrend, and price near $2.30 support. Macro conditions are not especially supportive for risk assets, with the 10Y yield at 5.127%, VIX at 17.77 and the USD index at 101.942. Peers BE/CIFR/CORZ were stronger on the day while KEEL lagged, showing relative weakness. Nasdaq consensus is still buy-leaning, but next-quarter EPS remains negative and revision confidence is low, which does not offset execution, financing and dilution risks.

Research as of 2026-10-19T15:23:51.821Z · Research conclusion, not a real-time trading signal · Outdated; update before reassessing

02What happened recently

Company events, industry developments and market conditions — facts separated from possible explanations.

US 10Y yield 5.13%2026-11-13T16:23:04.000Z

VIX 20.652026-11-13T16:23:01.000Z

Dollar index 103.332026-11-13T16:28:11.000Z

Market and sector reference

KEEL -8.72% · SPY -0.97% · Peer average -7.75% (APLD, BE, CIFR, CORZ, CRWV, IREN)

2026-11-13T16:40:02.000Z · Yahoo · Aligned-session reference, not a causal attribution.

Historical events and supporting research

Research timestamp 2026-11-05T14:20:24.725Z · Historical research, not a completed current investment review

Company events

On Nov. 5, the company’s website posted its third-quarter 2026 results announcement and updated conference-call information.
2026-11-05 · Press Releases | Keel Infrastructure Investor Overview | Keel Infrastructure

Fundamentals and context

In Q2 2026, the company said its three priority sites were nearing full permitting and each site had multiple prospective tenants in negotiation; it also said it had completed the wind-down of U.S. bitcoin mining and continued shifting toward North American HPC/AI infrastructure.
2026-08-10 · www.sec.gov
As of 2026-08-07, the company disclosed total liquidity of about $819 million, including about $698 million of unrestricted cash and about $121 million of unencumbered bitcoin.
2026-08-10 · www.sec.gov
On 2026-04-01, the company completed its redomiciliation and rebrand to Keel Infrastructure; the 10-Q says Keel became Bitfarms’ successor issuer as a result.

03Is the company worth considering?

Business quality, financials, valuation and analyst disagreements.

Analyst consensus and disagreement

Target-price summary $2.00–$5.00 · Consensus $3.46

Buy / hold / sell 5 / 2 / 0

Nasdaq · Retrieved 2026-11-13T16:41:28.037Z · The aggregate does not provide individual report dates or original theses. It does not establish undervaluation; no analyst rationale is inferred. Targets are not guaranteed outcomes.

Next-quarter EPS estimate (Dec 2026) $-0.07 · $-0.09–$-0.05 · 5 analysts

Four-week estimate revisions: up / down 1 / 2

Estimate dispersion 57.1%

Nasdaq EPS forecasts · retrieved 2026-11-13T16:41:25.551Z

Financial inputs and original sources

gpt-5.4-mini · 2026-10-19T15:23:51.821Z · AI-generated and checked, not an independent human audit

Cash: 698 USD_millions · 2026-08-07
“approximately $698 million in unrestricted cash”

Debt: 458 USD_millions · 2026-06-30
“The Company raised $458 million via a convertible note offering during the quarter.”

04Is now a good time?

Trend, moving averages, volume and key price levels — not the decline alone.

Technical structure · Downtrend structure

MA5 $1.95

MA10 $1.96

MA20 $2.13

MA60 $2.99

Last completed-session close $1.95 (-5.80%) · Volume / prior 20-session average 0.68×

Prior 20-session range $1.61–$2.58 · MA20 change over five sessions -9.02% · CMF20 -0.17

Long upper wick; rally rejected
Distribution-like weak closes (inference)

Confirmation to watch: a close above $2.58 with volume at least 1.5× the prior 20-session average. A heavy-volume break below $1.61 weakens the setup.

Completed daily candles only. Daily OHLCV cannot establish accumulation, shakeout or manipulation intent; CMF is a price/volume proxy, not actual fund flows. Thresholds are research rules, not validated success probabilities. Yahoo · 2026-11-12

05What would change our assessment?

Conditions for reconsidering entry and developments that invalidate the thesis.

When to reconsider

A cleaner entry would require the stock to reclaim the 20-day MA and then hold above the 10-day MA, with volume expanding meaningfully above the 20-day average.
If the company continues to confirm substantive progress on permits, land/power transfer and customer negotiations without new dilution or major delays, the risk/reward would improve.
A break above the $4.23 resistance level, while peers remain strong, would suggest the market is beginning to re-rate the transformation execution story.

What would invalidate the thesis

If permits, land closing, power transfer or customer negotiations are materially delayed, the timeline for conversion of the strategy extends and the thesis weakens.
If the company again relies on large external financing, especially convertibles or equity, to cover build-out and operating gaps, dilution pressure rises materially.
If continuing-operations losses widen, cash burn accelerates, or the stock loses the $2.30 support and stays below the 20-day MA, the bullish case breaks down.

KEEL · Investment case