US Commerce Department reportedly drafting rules to restrict downgraded AI chip exports to China

Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

Transmission logic: Downgraded chips are the last channel for US vendors to keep China revenue; once the rule lands, that revenue goes straight to zero.

1. #1NVDANVIDIAWatchlist

   8%

   China is ~13% of data-center revenue; H20-class downgraded parts are first in the line of fire

2. #2AMDAMDWatchlist

   6%

   The MI309 China variant faces a ban before it even ramps

3. #3INTCIntelWatchlist

   3%

   Downgraded Gaudi China orders are small, but it adds insult to injury

Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

Transmission logic: Tighter import channels make domestic substitution non-negotiable, accelerating order shifts to local vendors.

1. #1688256.SHCambricon

   12%

   The most direct domestic substitute for cloud training chips

2. #2688041.SHHygon

   9%

   The DCU line picks up supercomputing and AI data-center orders

3. #3688981.SHSMIC

   5%

   Domestic advanced-node foundry demand moves further up

Impact percentages are model estimates, not observed price changes, probabilities or guaranteed returns.

Transmission logic: Control escalations usually bring collateral equipment-export limits, raising uncertainty over China equipment capex.

1. #1ASMLASMLWatchlist

   4%

   China is ~20% of systems revenue; DUV export licenses may tighten again

2. #2AMATApplied MaterialsWatchlist

   3%

   High China revenue share brings collateral control risk

3. #3LRCXLam ResearchWatchlist

   3%

   Large China exposure in etch-equipment exports